Avian influenza
Economic Impact on the Houston Region
What does all this mean for Houston? If 20 to 40 percent of the population becomes infected with the virus, as some studies suggest, 1 to 2 million Houstonians would come down with the flu and 3,000-4,000 would die. A severe outbreak, like the 1918-1919 pandemic, would translate to 30,000 to 35,000 deaths in Houston. In a mild pandemic, Houston’s gross regional product would drop by about $5 billion (based on CBO estimates for the U.S. economy); in a severe pandemic, by about $16 billion.
Human Impact
Given global air travel, the virus could spread rapidly, leaving little or no time to prepare. Vaccines, antiviral drugs, and antibiotics would be in short supply and distributed unevenly. It would take months before an effective vaccine would be widely available.
How many people would get sick? In a typical influenza pandemic, 20 to 40 percent of the population is likely to become clinically ill. How many would die? Best case scenarios, based on the mild pandemics of 1957-58 and 1968-69, project U.S. deaths around 200,000 and global deaths in the range of 2 to 7.4 million. Other estimates that assume a more virulent virus, one similar to that responsible for the deadly 1918-19 pandemic, indicate a much higher number of deaths. If one translates the rate of death associated with the Spanish influenza to the current population, there could be 1.9 million deaths in the United States and 180 to 360 million deaths globally.
