HOUSTON (Dec. 11, 2025) — The Greater Houston Partnership forecasts 30,900 new jobs in metro Houston in 2026, marking continued but moderate expansion for the region.
While the forecast is below the 50,000 annual average of recent years, Houston is still expected to reach a record 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2026, reflecting steady growth in line with softer national labor market conditions.
Beyond the near-term forecast, the region’s medium- to long-term trajectory remains positive. The volume of new business announcements, along with a strong prospect pipeline, signals continued growth across Houston’s key industries. Regions Bank Chief Investment Officer Alan McKnight reinforced this outlook, noting that Texas has consistently outpaced the U.S. economy in real GDP growth – a trend driven by the state’s diversified economic base and competitive business climate.
According to the Partnership’s annual Houston Region Economic Outlook, health care and social assistance will drive nearly half of all new jobs, with 14,000 positions projected. Strong population growth with more insured working adults and an aging demographic continues to fuel demand. Other major contributors to job growth include construction, public education, public administration, and professional and technical services, all tied to serving the region’s expanding population.
Sectors tied to upstream oil production – including oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and administrative support services – are expected to contract as oil prices are projected to fall, curbing new drilling, revenues and business expansion. Information and retail are also forecast to post job losses, while transportation and warehousing and real estate and rentals are expected to remain flat.
“While current employment growth has moderated, the outlook remains robust and Houston’s broader economic foundation remains strong,” said Partnership President and CEO Steve Kean. “Global companies are choosing to invest in Houston – Eli Lilly, Foxconn, Inventec and others – because they believe in our workforce and our long-term trajectory. These commitments reinforce that Houston is a place where companies can scale and where our economy continues to demonstrate its resilience as a major engine for growth and opportunity. These commitments and current prospects we are working on give us confidence in the future growth of our economy.”
Houston’s recent performance reflects that resilience. The region has the fastest-growing economy of any major U.S. metro, is the youngest major metro in the country, and continues to attract new residents at one of the highest rates nationwide — adding 1.3 million people over the past decade, including nearly 200,000 in 2024 alone. These trends fuel demand for health care, education, housing, and services, helping sustain growth even during periods of national slowdown.
Together, steady job gains, significant corporate investments, and strong population growth paint a clear picture: Houston remains on a solid growth path, even in a slower economic environment.
National Economic Conditions
Despite a cooling labor market, geopolitical uncertainty and stubborn inflation, recession odds were at 33%, according to an October Wall Street Journal survey of economists. Other economic indicators show the national picture is far from bleak, and the U.S. economic output remains steady.
Read the full report for a sector-by-sector breakdown of the jobs forecast and the factors impacting each industry.
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About the Partnership’s Forecast Model
The Partnership’s 2025 employment forecast uses a new statistical model that analyzes how macroeconomic forces, such as consumer spending, industrial production, and energy prices, affect the region’s labor market. The model incorporates national forecasts from sources like the U.S. Energy Information Administration, along with the Partnership’s analysis to anticipate how broader economic trends will influence local hiring in the year ahead. The latest available data as of August 2025 was used for the model and report.
Greater Houston Partnership
The Greater Houston Partnership works to make Houston one of the best places to live, work and build a business. As the economic development organization for the region, the Partnership champions growth across 12 counties by bringing together business and civic-minded leaders who are dedicated to the area’s long-term success. Representing more than 800 member organizations and approximately one-fifth of the region’s workforce, the Partnership is the place companies come together to make an impact. Learn more at Houston.org.
CONTACT:
Brina Morales
Sr. Communications Director
[email protected]