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Latest Analysis: Unemployment Claims Across Houston Jump to 180,000; Global GDP Expected to Decline Up to 30%

Published Apr 14, 2020 by A.J. Mistretta

New data is beginning to show the dramatic impact the coronavirus is having on Houston’s economy. Partnership Senior Vice President of Research Patrick Jankowski used the latest reports to provide a status update on the region’s economic landscape on April 14. 

Watch Jankowski’s presentation via the link to the right. Here are a few highlights:

  • There are now nearly 600,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 21,000 deaths. Here in Houston there are now roughly 6,000 confirmed cases across the region. In just two weeks, the number of cases in the Houston area has quadrupled. 
  • It’s important to understand the global impact of the virus on a globally connected city like Houston. The latest forecast issued by the International Monetary Fund (its first since the pandemic began) shows global GDP shrinking 3%, which would dwarf the 0.9% decline experienced during the Great Recession of 2009. 
  • IMF has also mapped where they believe the worst of the economic fallout will happen, with Italy and the Baltic States showing the largest contraction.  
  • With roughly 450,000 jobs and 30% of GDP in the region tied to global trade, any drop on that front will have a significant impact on Houston. The World Trade Organization estimates global trade will fall between 10-30%. 
  • According to a survey from McKinsey & Co., 52% of respondents say they are cutting back on their spending. That will have a significant chilling effect on U.S. growth and the overall economy. Over 50% of respondents also believe it will take more than 4 months before we are able to return to normal behavior. 
  • A Wall Street Journal survey of economists shows that on average respondents believe the economy will shrink by about 25% in the second quarter. 
  • Initial claims for unemployment insurance now total 180,000 over the last three weeks, that’s compared to about 10,000 claims on average for a three-week period. Jankowski said he wouldn’t be surprised if jobless claims climb to 250,000 or more in total for March and April. 
  • On the aviation front, the Transportation Safety Administration might handle 2.5 million passengers during a normal day, but that has fallen to about 100,000 per day in recent weeks. 
  • Jankowski also provided an overview of a recent Partnership survey of small business members. See those results
     

Visit the Partnership's COVID-19 Resource page for updates, guidance for employers and more information. And sign up for daily email alerts from the Partnership as the situation develops. 

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University of Houston-Downtown expands into Amegy Bank's downtown building, which will be used for workshops, classes, events and more. The new 17,000-square-foot space on the 10th floor of the Amegy Bank building is called UHD@1801 Main, or “The Launchpad.” Education Alvin Community College has approved an online bachelor’s degree in nursing after the increased demand for nurses with bachelor’s degrees from local healthcare providers. Houston ISD commits $40 million to both HVAC and roofing updates, in which $21.2 million would go toward HVAC system repairs. 28 schools are projected to receive upgrades. Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo commits to $500,000 in vocational scholarships in 2025 and increased to benefit 10 Houston-area colleges and trade schools. Memorial Hermann Health System and Aldine ISD partner with HEAL High School to offer health care career training and clinical experience in a school-within-a-school model. 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Innovation  Aurora has opened an over 90,000-square-foot terminal at a Fallbrook Drive logistics hub in northwest Houston to support the launch of its first “lane” for driverless trucks—a Houston-to-Dallas route on the Interstate 45 corridor. Ara Partners raises $800 million for its first-ever infrastructure-focused fund, targeting mid-market industrial decarbonization assets that are economic without federal incentives. Bank of America funds the restoration of Houston's iconic Rothko Chapel, including a documentary about the restoration. CenterPoint Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNP) builds out new tools and 100 weather stations around Greater Houston to prepare for hurricane season. Daikin Industries completes a nearly one-megawatt solar power plant at its Daikin Comfort Technologies North America campus southeast of Waller, projecting to eliminate an estimated 845 metric tons of carbon emissions each year. Downtown Houston+ has implemented a $400,000 pedestrian lighting project, deemed the "Underpassage," that will brighten a stretch of downtown Houston at Texas Avenue and Rusk Street in light of the FIFA 2026 World Cup Fan Festival. Harris County has approved a five-point Climate Justice Plan to address issues relating to ecology, infrastructure, economy, community and culture. Intuitive Machines plans an orbital reentry vehicle, backed by $10 million from the Texas Space Commission, to fly fly autonomously and be capable of landing at airfields. Mercury Fund continues to leverage artificial intelligence to improve efficiency and decision-making processes within industries, drawing interest from traditional VC hubs. Rice University has opened the headquarters for the new RBL LLC incubator at Texas Medical Center, aiming to incubate three to four biotech companies annually.  Transportation  Downtown Houston+ leads the Main Street Promenade project, turning a stretch of Main Street into a pedestrian-friendly corridor in Downtown Houston. The $12 million project will work on seven blocks of Main Street that stretches from Rusk Street to Commerce Street. Houston ISD explores a partnership with METRO as it retools its transportation services for the 2025-2026 school year. Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) has filed an application seeking approval from the Department of Transportation to broaden its international flights in accordance to the Open Skies agreement, which would permit future flights to over 130 countries that are subject to the agreement. If you are a member and want us to help communicate news about your organization, please send a press release or information about the announcement to member.engagement@houston.org and we will share it with our content team for possible inclusion in an upcoming roundup. Learn more about Partnership membership.
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