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The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, averaged $103.21 per barrel in July ’22, a slight dip from $114.90 in June, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

EIA forecasts WTI to average $94.20 per barrel through the end of ’22 and average $89.13 for all of ’23, according to its August ’22 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). 

The forecast assumes:

• U.S. output averages 11.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in ’22 and rise to a record 12.7 million in ’23. The previous record was 12.3 million in ’19.
• OPEC crude production averages 28.47 million b/d and rises to 29.04 million b/d in ’23. OPEC production averaged 26.28 million b/d in ‘21.
• Global consumption will average 99.4 million b/d in ‘22, up 2.1 million b/d from ’21. EIA expects global consumption to rise 2.1 million b/d and average 101.5 million b/d in ’23.

EIA cautions that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sanctions on Russia’s oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas production rises, and weaker economic growth could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption.

Regular gasoline prices on the U.S. Gulf Coast averaged $3.55 per gallon the first week of August, down from $4.63 the second week of June, the most recent peak. Higher refinery utilization rates, growing inventories, and weaker demand will result in gasoline prices trending down through the end of the year. 

Prepared by Greater Houston Partnership Research Department

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, Research
713-844-3616
pjankowski@houston.org
 

Clara Richardson
Research Associate
713-844-3653
crichardson@houston.org