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Metro Houston shed 30,000 jobs in July, according to the Texas Workforce Commission. With the exception of ’21 and ’22, when the region was rapidly recouping its pandemic losses, Houston always cuts jobs in July. The losses range from 10,000 to 15,000 in boom years (’06, ’13, ’14) to 23,000 to 33,000 in recession years (’02, ’09, ’16). This year’s cutbacks land at the high end of the range, reflecting the impact of Hurricane Beryl, funding challenges facing local school districts, and a general slowdown in the economy. 

The bulk of July’s job losses occurred in six areas. 

• The education sector (public and private) typically sheds 17,000 to 22,000 jobs in July. This year’s losses (21,800) are on the high end of that range and likely reflect funding challenges that several local school districts are facing.
• Administrative and support services shed 4,600 jobs. The bulk of the losses fell within the employment services category (i.e. contract workers) and likely resulted from work stoppages due to Hurricane Beryl.
• The food services sector typically sheds 2,000 to 4,000 jobs in July. This year’s loss (2,500 jobs) falls within that range. However, the restaurant reservation service OpenTable reports dining activity was down as much as 80 percent the first week of July, so job losses may be revised upward once the full impact of Hurricane Beryl is accounted for.
• Transportation and warehousing shed 1,500 jobs, likely the result of Humble-based U.S. Logistics Solutions filing for bankruptcy liquidation in late June.
• Construction shed 900 jobs. The losses will likely be short-lived. Dodge Data & Analytics reports contract awards through June are up 41 percent over last year, portending an increase in hiring activity in the near future. 
• The manufacturing sector shed 1,100 jobs. This aligns with the ongoing decline in manufacturing employment nationwide.

Several sectors added jobs, among them wholesale trade (2,200), architectural and engineering services (1,400), finance and insurance (800), real estate (600), hospitals (600), and retail (600) which helped offset losses elsewhere.

If not in a recession, the region typically recoups its July job losses by September. Though other indicators point to slower growth ahead, Houston should finish with a net gain of 57,000 jobs or better this year. 
 

Prepared by Greater Houston Partnership Research

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Chief Economist
Senior Vice President, Research
pjankowski@houston.org

Leta Wauson
Research Director
lwauson@houston.org

 

 

 

 

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