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Economy at a Glance - January 2023

This edition of Glance reviews the current state of the U.S. economy, how Houston’s most recent GDP estimates compare to that of other metros, and provides an update on local employment and metro exports.
Published on 1/9/23

U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. economy continues to grow despite rising interest rates, a plunge in new home construction, the ongoing war in Ukraine, concerns over a new COVID variant, and a looming recession in Europe. The long-anticipated recession has yet to arrive.

U.S. gross domestic product, the most comprehensive gauge of the nation’s economic health, grew 3.2 percent in Q3/22 adjusted for inflation. That’s up from a decline of 0.6 percent in Q2/22 and a drop of 1.6 percent in Q1/22.

The 3.2 growth rate reflects an upward revision from two previous estimates issued by BEA. Initially, the agency estimated U.S. GDP grew 2.6 percent in Q3, later revised that to 2.9 percent, then revised that to 3.2 percent.

Growth was driven by rising exports, an increase in consumer spending, an uptick in commercial real estate, equipment, and intellectual property investments, and higher state, local, and federal government spending. These were somewhat offset by drops in home construction and inventory purchases. 

The nation created 223,000 jobs in December, which brought overall growth for ’22 to 4.5 million jobs. That ranks as the fifth-best December and the second-best year on record for job creation in the past two decades.

Nationally, initial claims for unemployment benefits, a proxy for lay¬offs, continue to trend lower. The four-week average slipped to 213,750 the last week of December, down from 249,500 in early August, the most recent peak. 

The four-week average for continued claims rose to 1,687,500, from a trough of 1,314,00 in early June. However, continued claims are tracking well below the comparable period in ’21. This suggests it takes marginally longer for laid-off workers to find employment now than in the summer, but less time than it did late in ’21. 

The U.S. unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) slipped to 3.5 percent in December and has remained between 3.5 percent to 3.7 percent since March ’21. The number of unemployed fell to 5.7 million in December, down from 6.3 million in December the year prior. The jobless rate for adult men was 3.1 percent, for adult women, 3.2 percent; for teenagers, 10.4 percent; for Whites, 3.0 percent; for Blacks, 5.7 percent; for Asians, 2.4 percent; and Hispanics, 4.1 percent. 

The labor market remains tight. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports there were 10.5 million job openings on the last business day of November. That’s an improvement from the peak of 11.9 in March ’22 but still above the 6.9 million in November ’19 prior to the pandemic. Nearly 4.2 million workers quit their jobs in November, somewhat above the 3.5 million in November ’19. The high level of quits suggests workers are more easily finding better pay or working conditions with other employers, or they’re confident they will have little difficulty doing so. The strong labor market is one factor driving inflation and influencing the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.

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Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. The nine counties are: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller.

Key January Takeaways

Here are the facts to know about the Houston region this month
1
January Takeaway #1
The nation created 223,000 jobs in December, bringing overall growth for ’22 to 4.5 million jobs.
2
January Takeaway #2
Houston’s GDP hit $537.1 billion in ’21.
3
January Takeaway #3
Houston accounted for 9.6 percent of the nation’s exports during the first nine months of ’22, exceeding that of any other U.S. metro.

Want to learn more? Contact our Research Team:

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Senior Vice President, Research
713-844-3616

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2022 Employment Forecast
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Coronavirus Impact and 2021 Outlook
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JAN
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NOV
2020
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OCT
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SEP
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2020
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JUL
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COVID-19 Update, Houston Unemployment
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JUN
2020
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MAY
2020
U.S. & Texas Outlook, GDP
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APR
2020
COVID-19 Update, PMI, Industry Outlook
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MAR
2020
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FEB
2020
U.S.-China Trade Deal, USMCA
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JAN
2020
Houston GDP, Energy, Jobs
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DEC
2019
Sector by Sector Forecast for 2020
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NOV
2019
Houston Region Demographic Update 2
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OCT
2019
Houston Region Demographic Update 1
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SEP
2019
Houston's Growth Engines
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AUG
2019
PMI, Commercial Real Estate & Housing
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More Insight & Analysis

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