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Economy at a Glance - July 2023

This issue of Glance looks at recent trends in employment, construction, manufacturing, transportation, real estate, and energy.
Published on 7/5/23

Mid-Year Report

Houston’s economy performed well in the first half of '23, but signs of a slowdown are emerging. Job growth continues but at a slower pace. Claims for unemployment benefits have ticked up. The unemployment rate remains low, however. Port tonnage has plateaued but container volumes continue to set records. Crude prices have softened leading to a downturn in drilling activity, but there are no signs yet of layoffs in the industry. The office market remains in the doldrums. Warehouse construction may have peaked. Retail leasing activity is holding steady. The single-family housing market has stabilized, but apartment developers continue to overbuild. Vehicle sales are the highest in years. And airport traffic is near pre-pandemic levels. In the following pages, the Partnership offers its insights into Houston’s economy at mid-year.

Employment

Metro Houston created a net 18,500 jobs from January through May. In non-boom/non-bust years, the region typically adds 12,000 to 25,000 jobs in the first five months of the year. The gains in '23 reflect an economy that’s neither in a boom nor bust cycle.

Metro Houston employment hit 3,354,300 in May '23, an all-time high. Since the economy reopened in May '20, the region has added 521,800 jobs, recovering 145.2 percent of the 359,300 jobs lost early in the pandemic. At the current pace of growth, local employment should top 3.4 million later this year.

The Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) typically reports job losses for the region every January. Workers hired for the holiday season are released. Layoffs on hold until the new year finally take place. And TWC makes annual adjustments to its employment database. As of May, four sectors had yet to recoup January’s losses or have reported additional layoffs since—construction (-7,400 jobs), retail (-7,200), transportation and warehousing (-5,200), and finance (-2,000). Interest rates are weighing on finance and construction. The retail losses reflect seasonal patterns. It’s unclear what’s impacting transportation and warehousing.

Civilian Labor Force

Metro Houston added over 49,200 workers to its labor force through May and 88,000 over the past 12 months. The surge includes young adults seeking their first job, Houstonians who were on hiatus re-entering the labor market, and new residents to the region. In May '23, Houston’s workforce hit a record 3,587,296. The metro area now has a larger workforce than 35 states and the District of Columbia.

Unemployment

Houston’s unemployment rate fell as low as 3.9 percent in April '23 but jumped to 4.4 percent in May. A year ago, it was 4.3 percent. 

The rate always rises in the spring as students look for summer jobs, recent grads enter the workforce, and educators pursue new options as the school year ends. In a few months, those students return to school, the grads find work, educators sign new contracts, and the unemployment rate declines. Between June and December, the rate often falls by 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points. Given the health of Houston’s economy, that’s sure to happen again this year.

Initial Claims

Initial claims for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, have crept up. In January, they averaged 3,982 a week. Late May and early June, they averaged 5,245. 

This also reflects a seasonal pattern. Claims creep up in the summer as educators whose contracts have expired file for benefits.  This summer’s filings, though elevated compared to last year, represent less than 0.2 percent of the region’s roughly 3.6 million workers.

The sectors with the most claims in recent weeks are elementary and secondary education, machine repair and maintenance, oil pipeline construction, and temporary help services.

Continued Claims

Continued claims filed by workers unemployed for at least a week after their initial claim are trending up as well, which suggests that workers who lose their jobs are experiencing some difficulty in finding new employment. Those claims remain low, however.

To continue reading, download this report.

Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. The nine counties are: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller.

Key July Takeaways

Here are the facts to know about the Houston region this month
1
July Takeaway #1
Metro Houston employment hit 3,354,300 in May '23, an all-time high.
2
July Takeaway #2
The single-family housing market has stabilized, but apartment developers continue to overbuild.
3
July Takeaway #3
Crude prices have softened leading to a downturn in drilling activity, but there are no signs yet of layoffs in the industry.

Want to learn more? Contact our Research Team:

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Senior Vice President, Research
713-844-3616

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U.S. Economic Outlook and Houston's Energy Industry
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APR
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Houston's population growth and employment revisions
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MAR
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U.S. Recession and Houston's Key Indicators
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FEB
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The Year in Review
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JAN
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The U.S. Economy and Houston's GDP Estimates
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DEC
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Recovery in the Oil and Gas Industry
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NOV
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Metro Houston's Job Growth and the Apartment Market
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OCT
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Recession? Maybe, Maybe Not
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AUG
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Houston at Mid-Year
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JUL
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The Houston Housing Market, Affordability, and Recent Shifts
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JUN
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Economic Recovery, Population Growth & Global Houston recap
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MAY
2022
Economic recovery, rising costs & labor force
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APR
2022
Population growth and employment data
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MAR
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Local Impact of a Global Event
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FEB
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Post-Analysis of 2021 Houston Economy
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JAN
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DEC
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2022 Employment Forecast
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OCT
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AUG
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Delta Variant, Rebounding Travel, Economic Growth and Population Gains
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JUL
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Energy Transition, Recovery Bottlenecks, & the Worker Shortage
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JUN
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Economic Recovery, Multifamily, Population & More
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May
2021
Housing Boom and Robust Recovery
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APR
2021
Pandemic Recovery, Tech Workforce
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MAR
2021
Pandemic Employment Data
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FEB
2021
Coronavirus Impact and 2021 Outlook
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JAN
2021
Racial Demographics and Population Shifts
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NOV
2020
U.S. Recovery, 2021 Outlook
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OCT
2020
U.S. Recovery, Houston Update
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SEP
2020
COVID-19 Impact on Economy
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AUG
2020
Energy Change Over Time
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JUL
2020
COVID-19 Update, Houston Unemployment
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JUN
2020
COVID-19 Update, Affected Sectors, Energy
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MAY
2020
U.S. & Texas Outlook, GDP
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APR
2020
COVID-19 Update, PMI, Industry Outlook
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MAR
2020
Economic Impact, Global Outlook, Recession Probability
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FEB
2020
U.S.-China Trade Deal, USMCA
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JAN
2020
Houston GDP, Energy, Jobs
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DEC
2019
Sector by Sector Forecast for 2020
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NOV
2019
Houston Region Demographic Update 2
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OCT
2019
Houston Region Demographic Update 1
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SEP
2019
Houston's Growth Engines
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AUG
2019
PMI, Commercial Real Estate & Housing
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More Insight & Analysis

Monthly Update: Inflation

Review the latest data on inflation in the Houston area. 

Monthly Update: Employment

Review the latest data on jobs in the Houston region. 

Monthly Update: Purchasing Managers Index

Review the latest data on this key economic indicator. 

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