Economy at a Glance – May 2025

Economy at a Glance May 2025

On May 1, the Greater Houston Partnership released its Global Houston ‘25 report. The full report can be found at the Partnership’s website. A summary of the document follows. Note: The newsletter includes updates to data not available at the time the original publication was sent to the printer.

 

The global economy is expected to continue growing in ’25. But recent changes to U.S. trade policy are likely to temper that growth, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revising its global growth forecast for ’25 down to 2.8 percent in April from 3.3 percent in January. Parts of Houston’s economy may be vulnerable to slowing global growth or increased trade tensions. But its relationships with other countries are deep and multi-faceted:

• Houston consistently exports more goods and commodities than any other U.S. metro.
• The Houston/Galveston Customs District routinely handles more foreign tonnage than any other U.S. customs district.
• Almost 1,000 foreign-owned firms operate over 1,800 offices, factories, warehouses, and service centers in Houston.
• Almost 150 Houston-based firms operate over 3,200 business establishments across 111 foreign countries.
• Over 1.8 million Houston residents, nearly one in every four, were born outside the U.S.
• Eighteen foreign banks, 41 foreign chambers of commerce and trade associations, and 11 trade and commercial offices promote trade and investment in the region.
• Eighty-six foreign governments have consulates or honorary consuls in Houston.

These ties have benefited the region’s economy in years past and will continue to be important to its success in ’25.

Houston led the nation in exports in ’24, shipping $180.9 billion in goods and commodities abroad. This is more than the combined value for New York and Los Angeles, the second and third highest exporting metros. Houston has ranked as the nation’s top exporting metro in 12 out of the past 13 years. The exception was in ’16, when OPEC flooded the market with crude and oil traded under $50 per barrel most of the year. Those conditions limited exports of oil and oil field equipment from Houston.

Houston’s export value has increased by 3.1 percent since ’23 and now totals $51.3 billion – 39.6 percent higher than in ’19, before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The metro data above comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s origin of movement (OM) series, which tracks goods based on the metro from which they began their export journey. For example, a medical device may be manufactured in Houston, then flown to New York where it’s transferred via airplane to Europe. Though the export leaves the U.S. via New York, it began its journey in Houston. Census considers that as a Houston export.

The International Trade Administration (ITA) estimates that Texas exports supported over 1.2 million jobs in ’22 (the latest year for which data is available). Since Houston accounted for around 40 percent of the state’s exports, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that roughly 480,000 Houston jobs—more than one in seven—were tied to exports. But this simple calculation probably understates the full economic impact of Houston’s foreign-facing businesses, as it does not account for capital investment or services provided for foreign clients.

The Houston/Galveston Customs District set a tonnage record in ’24. The eight ports that comprise the district handled over 432.6 million metric tons of goods and commodities, a 6.6 percent increase from ’23. Those shipments were valued at $376.3 billion, up 2.9 percent over ’23. This value is still down 4.0 percent from the record high of $391.9 billion set in ’22.

Customs district data differs from the origin of movement (OM) data in that district data reflects what passes through a region, which doesn’t necessarily correspond with where an item was produced or consumed. However, for Houston, customs district exports align with the region’s industrial base.

In ’24, the Houston/Galveston district exported $1.0  billion or more of the following products: crude oil and refined petroleum products, industrial equipment and computers, organic chemicals, electrical machinery and parts, plastics and plastic products, automobiles and automobile parts, articles of iron and steel, alcoholic beverages and vinegars, instruments and measuring devices, iron and steel, aircraft parts, home furnishings, pharmaceuticals, rubber and rubber products, inorganic chemicals, rare earths and precious metals, industrial components, toys and games, and cereal grains, aluminum and aluminum products, copper and copper products, essential oils and cosmetics, meats, wood and wood products, fruits and nuts, mineral ores, stone and plaster products, and linens.

Exports via the Houston/Galveston district consistently exceed imports. They accounted for 66.7 percent of all cargo value handled by the district in ’24. By comparison, exports accounted for 20.4 percent of the Los Angeles district’s exports, 30.5 percent of New York’s, and 37.5 percent of Laredo’s.